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Although 2025 had already been poised as the most challenging period in modern history for the post-1945 rules-based world order, recent days has been among the most devastating so far. The Israeli government further ignored obligations toward global agreements after deploying a squadron of warplanes to Qatar, striking representatives from Hamas engaged in ceasefire talks in Doha. The final significant platform aimed at dialogue appears to have gone up in smoke.

At least a group of unmanned aerial vehicles from Russia violated Poland’s airspace. In an unprecedented move, allied military aircraft was engaged to counter hostile objects within the borders of a member nation. Regardless of if the incursion resulted from an error or deliberate probing by Moscow, as western experts believe, it represented “the closest we have been to outright war since the second world war,” the Polish leader, the head of government, stated.

Subsequently, a prominent conservative voice, an outspoken right-wing figure and close Donald Trump ally, was shot dead during a speech to university attendees and political followers on a campus in Utah. In the absence of proof of the shooter’s identity or intentions, Trump immediately blamed “those on the radical left,” accusing them of rhetoric “directly responsible for the terrorism occurring currently across the nation now.”

Asked how the divided nation could heal after Kirk’s assassination, he responded he “couldn’t care less”. His explanation for that was chilling: Right-wing extremists act aggressively since they oppose criminal activity … The radicals on the left pose the real threat – being dangerous and despicable and strategically clever.” This is how political division transforms into tribalism. This is how cycles of hostility rush headlong into irreversible conflict.

Actually, more than three-quarters of deaths linked to extremism in the US over the last 10 years have come from individuals on the far right, while left-wing radicals responsible for just a small number of these incidents. Trump condemned ideologically motivated attacks broadly the following day – but did not acknowledge the recent spate assaults against Democrats, which involved multiple murders. From his perspective, the problem is always “them”, and not the “wonderful Americans” who make up his base.

The societal repercussions of Kirk’s death will no doubt unfold in the coming weeks, but the biggest danger in a polarised climate is that the shooting transforms into a Reichstag fire in contemporary times. The deliberate burning which occurred in early 1933 signaled Germany’s shift away from democracy toward autocratic rule. Hitler, newly appointed as head of state, capitalized on the incident to extinguish the freedoms of the Weimar constitution – expression, press, organizational liberty, public gathering.

“Anyone who stands in our way will be cut down,” he said, inspecting the arsoned building. Numerous leftist activists found themselves imprisoned, even elected representatives within the legislature. With the left neutralised, the ruling party swiftly consolidated power.

Within modern America, Kirk’s death has captivated the nation, energizing political bases and Trump’s supporters, and he knows it. An extremist figure, a controversial commentator, demanded the arrest of every Democratic politician, explicitly labeling the murder as the movement’s Reichstag fire moment.

In truth, here is the event that could rescue an increasingly unpopular presidency scarred by significant declines in employment figures, a weakening dollar, and a housing crisis. Trump mourned Kirk as though he were family, yet his language implied it might become focused equally on targeting opponents as justice. Immediately following the assassination, Trump promised to go after “each and every one of those who contributed in this tragedy … even groups providing backing.” He specifically mentioned a billionaire philanthropist, a donor to liberal causes and political contributor. “He’s a bad guy,” Trump told NBC News, he “should be put in jail.”

The reasons for the assassination remains unclear. The political views belonging to the attacker, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, seem confused similar to Thomas Matthew Crooks, a young man who tried to kill Trump at a rally. Is this truly left-wing extremism attacking right-wing figures – or is it an obscure online culture of online niches entering the real world? Phrases engraved upon ammunition shells in Utah read less like an ideological manifesto than a crude bricolage of immature jokes and gaming references.

Yet concerns arise that suppression of “unwilling” academics, legal professionals, journalists, government employees, armed forces members, and judicial figures across the country may increase. Already, online responses resulted in a wave of sackings and US state department officials have warned non-citizens against endorsing or make light of the murder, instructing consulates to take “appropriate action” toward individuals who do.

The former president has often prospered amid turmoil and instability. When genuine emergencies are absent, he invents scenarios – like nonexistent crime waves in major cities, Washington DC and urban centers. Manufactured unrest fuels his power grab. Now he has been handed chaos on a silver platter. It is understandable he shows no concern if the nation comes together.

This incident provides the perfect pretext for tightening his grip, silencing dissent, and centralizing authority – so that his successors may inherit full state control, irrespective of charisma, qualifications or mandate. Ultimately, all authoritarian regimes has to be built first; once entrenched, it is simpler to uphold.

Liberal democracy and the rules-based global order are far from perfect, but they have delivered peace, advancement and prosperity – the very opposite of dictatorial rule. Implying that America, a founder of modern systems, might rapidly descend into complete dictatorship, its leaders thinking like Nazis in 1933, may seem far-fetched.

However, alternatively, it is quite plausible. Totalitarianism was still within living memory during the upbringing even at the heart of modern democratic Europe were growing up. Across European states, numerous households have some history of the death, destruction, hatred and poverty resulting from oppressive regimes. To safeguard their near future, they should examine historical lessons.