Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.