Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Central Topics in Early Election
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in modern history with a more centrist and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were called after the collapse of the previous government in the summer, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies deemed him too toxic for the premier position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, closing most asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, typically an significant force on the EU and world stage, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to achieve majority status. No individual group ever manages this, and the Holland has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
As in much of Europe, Dutch politics have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been paralleled by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a party for animals, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the last election.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of voters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – demonstrations against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Potential New Government
Given the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are feasible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups potentially including JA21.
