‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.